If You'd have Told Me that 2008 would be the Year. . .

If even as recently as two years ago, you would have told me that a major political party in our country would nominate a black man to be President in 2008, I wouldn't have believed you. But, tonight, that effectively happened, and I'm absolutely thrilled.

For about a year and a half, I've believed that Obama would make the best President among all the candidates. While I also believe that Hillary Clinton would make a good President, I think that Obama will be better able to build consensus for and gain passage of key parts of the Democratic Party's agenda, including enacting universal health care and getting our troops out of the disaster that is the Iraq War.

Aside from my partisan predilections, I believe this election is Obama's for the taking. There are eight key factors that favor him and make him the favorite for November in my estimation:

1. Unlike for Republicans, it's crucial for Democratic Presidential candidates to be effective communicators (see Bush vs. Dukakis, 1988; Bush vs. Clinton, 1992; Bush vs. Gore, 2000; Bush vs. Kerry, 2004). The core beliefs and tenets of the Democratic Party are more difficult to express and convey to voters than those of the Republican Party. Just think of how Democrats think about taxes versus how Republicans do. It doesn't take an imaginative or effective communicator to say, "I'm going to cut your taxes." But it does take an effective speaker to explain well why you don't advocating cutting taxes unequivocally. Barack Obama is by far the best communicator among national political figures. I think he's even better than Bill Clinton mainly because Obama doesn't start off with 25-40 percent of the audience predisposed not to believe a word he's saying as is the case for President Clinton.

2. The country is sick of George W. Bush. I think Obama and my fellow Democrats can make an effective case that a McCain Presidency would be Bush part 3.

3. The country is eager to get out of Iraq. As you may be aware, John McCain is not eager to leave Iraq.

4. The country isn't particularly excited about John McCain. Yes, most people in the country respect and like him, but most people don't feel passionately about his candidacy.

5. The Republican party isn't excited at all about John McCain. The base will not be energized by him nor will they be energized by the opportunity to campaign against Hillary and Bill Clinton.

6. The country is genuinely excited about Barack Obama (aside from rednecks and bigots, that is).

7. Most members of my party are extremely excited about Barack Obama. I'm not too worried about bitter Hillary supporters. I just can't imagine that too many people who are ardent supporters of Hillary Clinton would somehow choose John McCain over Barack Obama. When push comes to shove, the views of the hard core Hillary supporters are not all that different from those of Senator Obama, while they are dramatically different from those of Senator McCain.

8. The media is in love with Barack Obama. Despite what happened with the Rev. Wright incident, the mainstream media is rooting for an Obama Presidency.

I don't see anyway that any of these eight factors will change between now and November.

The only X factor is Obama's race (and related issues, such as lingering suspicions among the ignorant that Obama is Muslim). I am hopeful and optimistic that the majority of white working-class and middle-class voters in swing states will examine the candidates on their merits, on their positions and policies, and on their visions for our country. I think that enough will ultimately decide to vote for Obama, and they will help elect him as the 44th President in the history of our nation and the first non-white man ever to lead our country.